MBS Continue to Outperform as Auctions Weigh on Treasuries

MBS Continue to Outperform as Auctions Weigh on Treasuries

First off, bonds are doing fine this morning.  10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels.  As far as most trade desks are concerned, 3pm is the closing time for Treasuries, and against that benchmark, we're slightly stronger on the morning.  MBS are stronger still, almost certainly because they don't have to concern themselves with the digestion of $183bln of new issuance over the first 2 days of the week (unlike Treasuries). With that in mind, keep an eye on today's auction results (typically 1:02pm, despite the 1pm official time). Bonds will either be seeing some post-supply relief, or simply locking into whatever the pre-Fed positioning trade may be.

Market Movement Recap
10:38 AM

2 way volatility early.  MBS back to unchanged.  10yr still weaker, up 1.8bps at 3.993

12:52 PM

MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up just under 1bp at 3.983

02:11 PM

minimal reaction to 7yr auction.  It was slightly weaker than expected, but yields are a hair lower since before the auction.  10yr up 0.6bps at 3.98 and MBS still up 1 tick (.03). 

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 10YR 3.982% +0.007% 10/28/2025 2:22PM EST
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning.  10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels.  As far as most trade desks are concerned, 3pm is the closing time for Treasuries, and against that benchmark, we're slightly stronger on the morning.  MBS are stronger still, almost certainly because they don't have to concern themselves with the digestion of $183bln of new issuance over the first 2 days of the week (u...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.13% -0.06% 15YR Fixed 5.72% -0.04% 10/28/2025
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in a month last Tuesday and barely budged through the rest of the week. Now, at the start of the new week, the average lender is perfectly unchanged from last Friday. This means there are only a small handful of days with meaningfully lower rates going all the way back to late 2022. As the government shutdown continues, the bond market (which dictates rates) continues missing out on the bulk of relevant economic reports that normall...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 28
9:00AM Aug FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Aug 0.4% 0.1% -0.1%
9:00AM Aug FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Aug 2.3% 2.3%
9:00AM Aug Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Aug 1.6% 1.9% 1.8%
9:00AM Aug CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Aug -0.6% -0.3%
10:00AM Oct CB Consumer Confidence (%) Oct 94.6 93.2 94.2
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
Wednesday, Oct 29
7:00AM Oct/24 MBA Purchase Index Oct/24 157.3
7:00AM Oct/24 Mortgage Market Index Oct/24 316.2
7:00AM Oct/24 MBA Refi Index Oct/24 1214.7
8:30AM Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) Sep -0.2%
10:00AM Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) Aug -0.2% 0%
10:00AM Sep Pending Home Sales (%) Sep 1.7% 4%
10:30AM Oct/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/24 -0.4M -0.961M
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.200%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 30
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.0% 4.25%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
Read My Latest Newsletter
The end of October brings the next Fed announcement and it is a 100% certainty that they will be cutting rates again. Many people believe this means lower mortgage rates. Many people are wrong. To be perfectly fair, mortgage rates COULD move lower after the Fed rate cut, but they could also move higher. We've certainly seen our fair share of counterintuitive reactions to rate cuts in the past. ... READ MORE