MBS Continue to Outperform as Auctions Weigh on Treasuries
MBS Continue to Outperform as Auctions Weigh on Treasuries
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As far as most trade desks are concerned, 3pm is the closing time for Treasuries, and against that benchmark, we're slightly stronger on the morning. MBS are stronger still, almost certainly because they don't have to concern themselves with the digestion of $183bln of new issuance over the first 2 days of the week (unlike Treasuries). With that in mind, keep an eye on today's auction results (typically 1:02pm, despite the 1pm official time). Bonds will either be seeing some post-supply relief, or simply locking into whatever the pre-Fed positioning trade may be.
2 way volatility early. MBS back to unchanged. 10yr still weaker, up 1.8bps at 3.993
MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up just under 1bp at 3.983
minimal reaction to 7yr auction. It was slightly weaker than expected, but yields are a hair lower since before the auction. 10yr up 0.6bps at 3.98 and MBS still up 1 tick (.03).
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Oct 28 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Aug FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Aug FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Aug | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| 9:00AM | Aug Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Aug | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| 9:00AM | Aug CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Aug | -0.6% | -0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Oct | 94.6 | 93.2 | 94.2 |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Wednesday, Oct 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/24 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/24 | 157.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/24 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/24 | 316.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/24 MBA Refi Index | Oct/24 | 1214.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | -0.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales (%) | Sep | 1.7% | 4% | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/24 | -0.4M | -0.961M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.200% | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.0% | 4.25% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||