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Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to find a bid. Or at least that's how it seemed during domestic hours. When considering the overnight session, we actually saw yields hit their lows of the day before the open, sell-off a bit at 8:20-8:40am surrounding a weekly employment update from ADP, and then return to the best levels mid-day. The 7yr auction was slightly weaker, but bonds didn't mind (perhaps just relieved to have supply in the rearview). With tomorrow's Fed cut a 100% certainty, volatility potential depends on Powell's press conference as well as whether or not the Fed makes any sort of announcement to end quantitative tightening (something that has been increasingly speculated by trade desks). The QT news wouldn't be as big as it sounds, but it might help a bit (or hurt a bit if it's not announced).
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/24 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/24 | 164.3 | 157.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/24 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/24 | 338.7 | 316.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/24 MBA Refi Index | Oct/24 | 1327.8 | 1214.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales (%) | Sep | 0% | 1.6% | 4% |
| 10:30AM | Oct/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/24 | -6.858M | -0.2M | -0.961M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.190% | 0.200% | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.0% | 4.25% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Oct 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct/11 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/11 | 1930K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/18 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/18 | 223K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP deflator (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (on hold, shutdown) (%) | Q3 | 3% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 7.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/25 | |||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ (on hold, shutdown) | Q3 | 2.9% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/18 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/18 | |||
| 9:55AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 7.5 to 30 yrs (%) | $25 million | |||
| 1:15PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
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