Some Early Month-End Buying
Some Early Month-End Buying
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end. If you're curious about some of the month-end trading considerations that can impact bonds, we have a primer. Month-end can involve either buying or selling (or both). Timing can vary, but the more visible impacts tend to show up between 8-10am and/or around the 3pm CME close or 4pm NYSE close. So far today, this morning's strength has some month-end flavor with apparent asset-allocation trading (bond yields and stock prices moving in same direction) starting at the 8:20am CME open. End of day volatility is a possibility, but not a guarantee. Either way, as hoped, the market got this week's post-Fed trading out of the way by yesterday mid-day.
A hair weaker overnight, but gaining ground since the open. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.086
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) on the day but down an eighth from the AM highs. 10yr now up 0.2bps at 4.097
MBS down 6 ticks from highs (.19) and 1 tick on the day. 10yr up 0.4bps at 4.099
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Oct 31 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (on hold due to shutdown) (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 9:30AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Oct Chicago PMI | Oct | 43.8 | 42.3 | 40.6 |
| 12:00PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| Monday, Nov 03 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 52.2 | 52.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Construction spending (%) | Aug | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment | Oct | 45.3 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Oct | 62.6 | 61.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Oct | 15.6M | 16.4M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 49.2 | 49.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Construction spending (%) | Sep | |||
| 12:00PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
