President
Colten Mortgage
License:
NMLS #6122
Company NMLS #14210

Light Volatility After Initial Losses

Light Volatility After Initial Losses

The first day of the new month began with some potential excitement, albeit not the good kind. A corporate bond offering from Alphabet pushed yields quickly higher just before 8am. Lackluster results in the ISM Manufacturing data helped push back in the other direction, but only briefly. The rest of the day was spent with yields drifting sideways near the AM highs, ultimately making for the weakest close since October 9th, but only modestly worse than last Thursday.

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Light Volatility After Initial Losses

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.56 +0.11 10YR 4.093% -0.016% 11/4/2025 6:47AM EST
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond offering, estimated at $15bln. Corporate bond issuance puts upward pressure on rates in several ways and there's almost always an immediate pop when a new, large deal (like this morning's) is announced. As a result, 10yr yields were roughly 4bps higher at the open. We saw a small rally in response to tepid ISM manufacturing da...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.34% +0.06% 15YR Fixed 5.82% +0.01% 11/3/2025
Up until last week's Fed announcement, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at the lowest levels in more than a year (in many cases, matching the same lows seen on September 16th--the day before the previous Fed announcement). Although these past 2 post-Fed episodes have resulted in somewhat volatile bounces, rates are still far closer to long-term lows than they are to the summertime highs. In terms of MND's 30yr fixed index, we're currently at 6.34% versus last week's...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 04
6:35AM Fed Bowman Speech
8:30AM Aug Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) Aug $-60.4B $-78.3B
8:30AM Sep Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) Sep
10:00AM Sep (on hold) USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Sep 7.2M 7.227M
10:00AM Sep (on hold) JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Sep 3.091M
10:10AM Nov IBD economic optimism Nov 48.1 48.3
10:30AM NY Fed Treasury Purchases 10 to 22.5 yrs (%) $50 million
Wednesday, Nov 05
7:00AM Oct/31 MBA Purchase Index Oct/31 164.3
7:00AM Oct/31 Mortgage Market Index Oct/31 338.7
7:00AM Oct/31 MBA Refi Index Oct/31 1327.8
8:15AM Oct ADP jobs (k) Oct 24K -32K
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 55.2 54.2
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 54.8 53.9
10:00AM Oct ISM Services New Orders Oct 50.4
10:00AM Oct ISM Biz Activity Oct 49.9
10:00AM Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 50.7 50.0
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Employment Oct 47.2
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Prices Oct 69.4
10:30AM Oct/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/31 -6.858M
Read My Latest Newsletter
Not all rates are created equal and not all rates move in the same direction for the same reasons. One of the most common reasons for rates moving in opposite directions is that the underlying bonds, loans, etc. have different terms. In other words, market demand for a 7-year loan can be quite different from a 1-day loan , depending on the day. While a typical mortgage may be ABLE to last ... READ MORE
President
Colten Mortgage
License:
NMLS #6122
Company NMLS #14210