Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data

Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data

Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overnight session. This is not the typical pattern seen these days, but it's not uncommon to see some positive spillover into bonds when stock losses are sharp enough. In any event, it's not something to count on when it comes to tomorrow's motivations. For that, we actually have economic data for a change. In the absence of government agency data, if we had to pick 2 reports to carry the torch, they would be ADP employment and ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow brings us both releases and, thus, a strong chance to see data-driven volatility. 

Market Movement Recap
09:15 AM

modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.095

01:39 PM

Sideways near best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.083

04:48 PM

Heading out at best levels.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.084

Latest Video Analysis

Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.71 +0.13 10YR 4.067% -0.019% 11/4/2025 10:37PM EST
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling in concert. Believe it or not, this is the exception these days. In fact, since late May, stocks and bonds have generally been rallying together. Contrast that to the conventional wisdom trade in which one is losing while the other is winning. These days, it tends to take quite a lot of stock selling to prompt a spill...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.33% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.80% -0.02% 11/4/2025
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move.  It's just as fair to say rates held steady today. While it's always nice to avoid a more serious rate spike on any given day, by holding flat, rates are remaining in line with their highest levels in just over 3 weeks.  The bonds that underlie mortgage rates improved slightly throughout the day, but not enough for most mortg...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 04
6:35AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:10AM Nov IBD economic optimism Nov 43.9 48.1 48.3
10:30AM NY Fed Treasury Purchases 10 to 22.5 yrs (%) $50 million
Wednesday, Nov 05
7:00AM Oct/31 MBA Purchase Index Oct/31 164.3
7:00AM Oct/31 Mortgage Market Index Oct/31 338.7
7:00AM Oct/31 MBA Refi Index Oct/31 1327.8
8:15AM Oct ADP jobs (k) Oct 25K -32K
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 55.2 54.2
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 54.8 53.9
10:00AM Oct ISM Services New Orders Oct 50.4
10:00AM Oct ISM Biz Activity Oct 49.9
10:00AM Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 50.8 50.0
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Employment Oct 47.2
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Prices Oct 69.4
10:30AM Oct/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/31 -2.5M -6.858M
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Not all rates are created equal and not all rates move in the same direction for the same reasons. One of the most common reasons for rates moving in opposite directions is that the underlying bonds, loans, etc. have different terms. In other words, market demand for a 7-year loan can be quite different from a 1-day loan , depending on the day. While a typical mortgage may be ABLE to last ... READ MORE