|
|
|
|
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement. In today's case, because of the government shutdown, it means we're getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn't exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally, at 48.2, ISM's employment component remains under 50 (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) and barely beat the 47.6 forecast. These "yeah buts" are likely limiting the damage we'd otherwise be seeing, but there is nonetheless some damage to see.
Weaker after ADP. MBS are roughly unchanged and 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.108.
Additional selling after ISM data. Weakest levels of the day. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up nearly 6bps at 4.144
Additional losses and new lows. MBS down nearly 3/8ths. 10yr up 7bps at 4.155
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/31 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/31 | 163.3 | 164.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/31 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/31 | 332.3 | 338.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/31 MBA Refi Index | Oct/31 | 1290.8 | 1327.8 | |
| 8:15AM | Oct ADP jobs (k) | Oct | 42K | 25K | -32K |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Services PMI | Oct | 54.8 | 55.2 | 54.2 |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Composite PMI | Oct | 54.6 | 54.8 | 53.9 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services New Orders | Oct | 56.2 | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Biz Activity | Oct | 54.3 | 49.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI | Oct | 52.4 | 50.8 | 50.0 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Employment | Oct | 48.2 | 47.6 | 47.2 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Prices | Oct | 70.0 | 68.0 | 69.4 |
| 10:30AM | Oct/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/31 | 5.202M | 0.6M | -6.858M |
| Thursday, Nov 06 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 54.064K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/11 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/11 | 1930K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/18 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/18 | 223K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/25 | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct/18 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/18 | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/25 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Nov/01 | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | |||
| 11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 5:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
|
|
|
|
|
