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Straightforward Selling Pressure
Straightforward Selling Pressure
As the bond market continues traversing the shutdown-induced data desert, we occasionally come to an oasis. Of those, the most glorious is the first Wednesday of the month due to the combination of ADP payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing (the latter doesn't always come out on Wednesday, but today it did). Unfortunately, drinking the water from this particular oasis left bonds with a bad taste in the mouth. Both reports were stronger than expected. The combined impact hit 10yr yields for roughly 7bps and the highest close in weeks. MBS lost more than a quarter point, leaving mortgage rates very close to 2-month highs.
Weaker after ADP. MBS are roughly unchanged and 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.108.
Additional selling after ISM data. Weakest levels of the day. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up nearly 6bps at 4.144
Additional losses and new lows. MBS down nearly 3/8ths. 10yr up 7bps at 4.155
Flat at weaker levels all afternoon. MBS down just over a quarter point and 10yr up 7bps at 4.156
Straightforward Selling Pressure
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 05 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/31 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/31 | 163.3 | 164.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/31 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/31 | 332.3 | 338.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/31 MBA Refi Index | Oct/31 | 1290.8 | 1327.8 | |
| 8:15AM | Oct ADP jobs (k) | Oct | 42K | 25K | -32K |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Services PMI | Oct | 54.8 | 55.2 | 54.2 |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Composite PMI | Oct | 54.6 | 54.8 | 53.9 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services New Orders | Oct | 56.2 | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Biz Activity | Oct | 54.3 | 49.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI | Oct | 52.4 | 50.8 | 50.0 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Employment | Oct | 48.2 | 47.6 | 47.2 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Prices | Oct | 70.0 | 68.0 | 69.4 |
| 10:30AM | Oct/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/31 | 5.202M | 0.6M | -6.858M |
| Thursday, Nov 06 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 54.064K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/11 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/11 | 1930K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/18 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/18 | 223K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/25 | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct/18 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/18 | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/25 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Nov/01 | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | |||
| 11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 5:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
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