Drew Stiegemeier
Mortgage Banker
Frontier Mortgage
P: (636) 898-0888
M: (618) 779-7507
frontierhomemortgage.com/drew
License:
1406168

Straightforward Selling Pressure

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Straightforward Selling Pressure

As the bond market continues traversing the shutdown-induced data desert, we occasionally come to an oasis. Of those, the most glorious is the first Wednesday of the month due to the combination of ADP payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing (the latter doesn't always come out on Wednesday, but today it did). Unfortunately, drinking the water from this particular oasis left bonds with a bad taste in the mouth. Both reports were stronger than expected. The combined impact hit 10yr yields for roughly 7bps and the highest close in weeks. MBS lost more than a quarter point, leaving mortgage rates very close to 2-month highs.

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Straightforward Selling Pressure

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.54 +0.26 10YR 4.085% -0.076% 11/6/2025 5:00PM EST
New Lows and Perhaps Some Reprice Risk
This is a bit of a tricky situation when it comes to assessing reprice risk.  The short version is that the stronger your initial rate sheets are, the bigger the risk.  Also, any rate sheets that came out at 10am ET or before are at high risk.   MBS are down more than a quarter point on the day and nearly a quarter point from 10am levels.  The trickiest consideration is for lenders who priced around 10:30am as MBS had bounced back a bit at that ...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
Alert:
More Selling After ISM Data
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.29% -0.08% 15YR Fixed 5.82% -0.04% 11/6/2025
Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Highs After Today's Econ Data
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates ) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates,...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 05
7:00AM Oct/31 MBA Purchase Index Oct/31 163.3 164.3
7:00AM Oct/31 Mortgage Market Index Oct/31 332.3 338.7
7:00AM Oct/31 MBA Refi Index Oct/31 1290.8 1327.8
8:15AM Oct ADP jobs (k) Oct 42K 25K -32K
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 54.8 55.2 54.2
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 54.6 54.8 53.9
10:00AM Oct ISM Services New Orders Oct 56.2 51.0 50.4
10:00AM Oct ISM Biz Activity Oct 54.3 49.9
10:00AM Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 52.4 50.8 50.0
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Employment Oct 48.2 47.6 47.2
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Prices Oct 70.0 68.0 69.4
10:30AM Oct/31 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/31 5.202M 0.6M -6.858M
Thursday, Nov 06
7:30AM Oct Challenger layoffs (k) Oct 153.074K 54.064K
10:00AM Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) Aug -0.2% 0%
10:00AM Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) Sep
11:00AM Fed Williams Speech
11:00AM Fed Barr Speech
12:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
3:30PM Fed Waller Speech
4:30PM Fed Paulson Speech
5:30PM Fed Musalem Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Once More With Feeling: Mortgage Rates Moved Higher After The Fed Rate Cut
10/31/2025 6:14PM
Not all rates are created equal and not all rates move in the same direction for the same reasons. One of the most common reasons for rates moving in opposite directions is that the underlying bonds, loans, etc. have different terms. In other words, market demand for a 7-year loan can be quite different from a 1-day loan , depending on the day. While a typical mortgage may be ABLE to last ... READ MORE
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Drew Stiegemeier
Mortgage Banker
Frontier Mortgage
P: (636) 898-0888
M: (618) 779-7507
frontierhomemortgage.com/drew
License:
1406168
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.