Broker Owner
Lumina Real Estate & Lending
License:
DRE 01471238
NMLS 334006

New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration

New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration

The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls.  While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's no great way to justify this morning's rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline in monthly job creation.

Market Movement Recap
09:53 AM

Fairly sharp rally at 8:20am CME open with more buying as stocks sell off.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.097

Latest Video Analysis

Straightforward Selling Pressure

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.58 +0.30 10YR 4.085% -0.076% 11/6/2025 1:07PM EST
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls.  While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.29% -0.08% 15YR Fixed 5.82% -0.04% 11/6/2025
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates ) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates,...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 06
7:30AM Oct Challenger layoffs (k) Oct 153.074K 54.064K
10:00AM Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) Aug -0.2% 0%
10:00AM Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) Sep
11:00AM Fed Williams Speech
11:00AM Fed Barr Speech
12:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
3:30PM Fed Waller Speech
4:30PM Fed Paulson Speech
5:30PM Fed Musalem Speech
Friday, Nov 07
3:00AM Fed Williams Speech
7:00AM Fed Jefferson Speech
8:30AM Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) Sep 50K 22K
8:30AM Sep Participation Rate Sep 62.3%
8:30AM Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) Sep 4.3% 4.3%
8:30AM Sep Average earnings mm (%) Sep 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Oct Average earnings mm (%) Oct
8:30AM Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) Oct
8:30AM Oct Participation Rate Oct
8:30AM Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) Oct
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Nov 4.6%
10:00AM Nov U Mich conditions Nov 59.2 58.6
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Nov 3.9%
10:00AM Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) Nov 53.2 53.6
11:00AM Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct 3.4%
3:00PM Sep Consumer credit (bl) Sep $10B $0.36B
3:00PM Fed Miran Speech
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Not all rates are created equal and not all rates move in the same direction for the same reasons. One of the most common reasons for rates moving in opposite directions is that the underlying bonds, loans, etc. have different terms. In other words, market demand for a 7-year loan can be quite different from a 1-day loan , depending on the day. While a typical mortgage may be ABLE to last ... READ MORE
Broker Owner
Lumina Real Estate & Lending
License:
DRE 01471238
NMLS 334006