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Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and perhaps some technical support seen as early as yesterday when 10yr yields topped out at 4.16), today provided that rally.
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Ceiling?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Nov 07 | |||||
| 3:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:00AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Sep | 50K | 22K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Participation Rate | Sep | 62.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) | Sep | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Average earnings mm (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Participation Rate | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 4.6% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 59.2 | 58.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.9% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 53.2 | 53.6 | |
| 11:00AM | Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations | Oct | 3.4% | ||
| 3:00PM | Sep Consumer credit (bl) | Sep | $10B | $0.36B | |
| 3:00PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| Monday, Nov 10 | |||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
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