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Shutdown is Over. Don't Get Excited
Shutdown is Over. Don't Get Excited
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means essentially nothing in terms of being a surprise headline. On the data front, today is also meaningless in the short term. It's not as if the backlog of econ data will suddenly be released. The only exception is the September jobs report, which could still be released this week since it was largely ready to go before the shutdown. As for the initial reaction in bonds, it's been modestly weaker, as expected, but not weak enough to offset yesterday's gains so far.
Weaker overnight and a bit more selling in the past few minutes. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 3 ticks (.09) since rate sheets. 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.113
Best levels of the day in Treasuries with 10yr up only 3bps at 4.096. MBS down an eighth of a point.
A bit weaker after 30yr auction. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.111
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 13 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Nov/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/07 | 6.413M | 2M | 5.202M |
| 12:15PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 12:20PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.694% | 4.734% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 3:30PM | Oct Federal budget,(on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Oct | $50B | $198B | |
| Friday, Nov 14 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Producer Prices (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Sep | -0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Business Inventories (% ) | Sep | |||
| 10:05AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 3:20PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
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