|
|
Stronger Start After 7am Magical Mystery Move
Stronger Start After 7am Magical Mystery Move
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had done more than half of their overnight selling by 7am, and stocks are one of the only scapegoats. In other words, a "flight to safety" (sell stocks/buy bonds) seems to be the only popular explanation, and it's entirely unsatisfying when looking at stocks and bonds on a chart. Our official take is: there's a secret club and we're not in it. There are some straws we could grasp at, but feel less compelled to do so when the magical mystery move is an instant 5bp rally.
Initially weaker overnight, but now stronger after a big rally at 7am-730am. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.067
giving up most of the AM gains. 10yr down less than half a bp at 4.112. MBS still up 3 ticks (.09) but down 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs.
New lows. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.142
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Nov 14 | |||||
| 10:05AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Oct Federal budget,(on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Oct | $50B | $198B | |
| 2:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 3:20PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| Monday, Nov 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Nov NY Fed Manufacturing | Nov | 6.1 | 10.70 | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 3:35PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:55PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
|
|
|
