Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform

Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform

In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today's case, the MBS underperformance is most easily attributed to Treasuries' underperformance on Friday. Specifically, 10yr yields pressed up to new highs by the end of the day whereas MBS held just slightly above their mid-day lows. Said another way, if we look back 2 trading sessions instead of 1, there's no noticeable underperformance. The flat vibes are consistent with an absence of actionable info. This will change as the week continues, especially on Wednesday (Fed Minutes) and Thursday (NFP). 

Market Movement Recap
08:54 AM

Modestly stronger overnight with a slight pullback at 7am.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.135

12:09 PM

MBS still up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.127

03:28 PM

MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.132

Latest Video Analysis

Uneventful Monday. MBS Underperform

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.24 +0.16 10YR 4.113% -0.026% 11/18/2025 12:15AM EST
The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because it was ready to publish at the time of the shutdown (so don't expect a flood of other announcements). By the time it comes out, we'll have been waiting 1.5 months for a report that otherwise would have come out in early October. On one hand, that's kind of stale. On the other hand, it's the jobs report. Despite t...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.38% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.86% +0.00% 11/17/2025
The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Friday's latest levels. For the average lender, this means conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the upper boundary of a narrow range stretch back to September 4th. It was the September 5th jobs report that sparked a rate rally that resulted in the lowest levels in over a year. Due to the government shutdown, that was the last ti...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 18
8:30AM Sep Import prices mm (%) Sep 0.1% 0.3%
8:30AM Sep Export prices mm (%) Sep 0.1% 0.3%
8:30AM Oct Export prices mm (%) Oct
8:30AM Oct Import prices mm (%) Oct
10:00AM Nov NAHB housing market indx Nov 37 37
10:30AM Fed Barr Speech
1:00PM Oct Federal budget (bl) Oct $50B $198B
Wednesday, Nov 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
7:00AM Nov/14 Mortgage Market Index Nov/14 334.2
7:00AM Nov/14 MBA Refi Index Nov/14 1247.5
7:00AM Nov/14 MBA Purchase Index Nov/14 172.7
8:30AM Aug Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) Aug $-61B $-78.3B
8:30AM Sep Building Permits (ml) Sep 1.34M 1.33M
8:30AM Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) Sep 1.33M 1.307M
8:30AM Oct Housing starts number mm (ml) Oct
8:30AM Oct Building Permits (ml) Oct
10:30AM Nov/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Nov/14 6.413M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 16
2:00PM Fed Williams Speech
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
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After the longest shutdown in history the U.S. government reopened on Thursday. As expected, this has added a bit of upward pressure for rates. Because the prevailing rate range is very narrow, this leaves average 30yr fixed rates in line with their highest levels in more than 2 months. Why would the reopening push rates higher? Rates tend to move higher when the economy is doing well and ... READ MORE