Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today's case, the MBS underperformance is most easily attributed to Treasuries' underperformance on Friday. Specifically, 10yr yields pressed up to new highs by the end of the day whereas MBS held just slightly above their mid-day lows. Said another way, if we look back 2 trading sessions instead of 1, there's no noticeable underperformance. The flat vibes are consistent with an absence of actionable info. This will change as the week continues, especially on Wednesday (Fed Minutes) and Thursday (NFP).
Uneventful Monday. MBS Underperform
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Import prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Export prices mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Import prices mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Nov NAHB housing market indx | Nov | 37 | 37 | |
| 10:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Oct Federal budget (bl) | Oct | $50B | $198B | |
| Wednesday, Nov 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/14 | 334.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 MBA Refi Index | Nov/14 | 1247.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/14 | 172.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Aug | $-61B | $-78.3B | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Building Permits (ml) | Sep | 1.34M | 1.33M | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) | Sep | 1.33M | 1.307M | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Housing starts number mm (ml) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Building Permits (ml) | Oct | |||
| 10:30AM | Nov/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/14 | 6.413M | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||