Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data
Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release dates). Thankfully, the surprise releases were not big-ticket items. The most relevant report of the morning was ADP's new weekly job count ("NER Pulse") which showed another decline. By the time it came out, bonds had already rallied nicely in the overnight session. This suggests traders were already keen to buy the dip in prices that resulted in yields hitting the top of the recent range. The Cleveland Fed WARN notices (which came out late yesterday) could have helped get the party started.
Stronger overnight with some additional gains after ADP data. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.8 bps at 4.091
Uneventful Monday. MBS Underperform
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov 18 | |||||
| 5:00AM | Oct/11 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/11 | 1947.0K | 1930K | 1926.0K |
| 5:00AM | Oct/18 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/18 | 232K | 223K | 218K |
| 5:00AM | Oct/18 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/18 | 1957.0K | 1947.0K | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | -2.5K | -11.25K | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Factory orders mm (%) | Aug | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.3% |
| 10:00AM | Nov NAHB housing market indx | Nov | 38 | 37 | 37 |
| 10:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Oct Federal budget (bl) | Oct | $50B | $198B | |
| Wednesday, Nov 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/14 | 334.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 MBA Refi Index | Nov/14 | 1247.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/14 | 172.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Aug | $-61B | $-78.3B | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Building Permits (ml) | Sep | 1.34M | 1.33M | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) | Sep | 1.32M | 1.307M | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Housing starts number mm (ml) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Building Permits (ml) | Oct | |||
| 10:30AM | Nov/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/14 | 6.413M | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
