Broker NMLS #1930964
Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498
License:
2481498
1930964

Bonds Inch to Best Levels in Over 3 Weeks

Bonds Inch to Best Levels in Over 3 Weeks

It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond market movement. Nonetheless, bonds have found a reason to rally ever-so-slightly this morning. Because yields were already at the low end of November's range on Friday afternoon, the result is that today's yields are the lowest we've seen since the late October Fed day. The next 2 days have quite a bit of data in addition to running a traditional risk of higher volatility due to holiday week trading conditions. In the bigger picture, we're likely still waiting for the mid-December econ data before bonds would have enough info to threaten the still-relatively-narrow 3 month trading range. 

Market Movement Recap
08:53 AM

Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.05

12:04 PM

MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.047

02:52 PM

Best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.037

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.64 +0.14 10YR 4.035% -0.029% 11/24/2025 3:03PM EST
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond market movement. Nonetheless, bonds have found a reason to rally ever-so-slightly this morning. Because yields were already at the low end of November's range on Friday afternoon, the result is that today's yields are the lowest we've seen since the late October Fed day. The next 2 days have quite a bit of data in addition to running...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.32% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.80% -0.02% 11/24/2025
Recent stock market losses have gotten a lot attention in the news recently. While there's no reliable correlation between stocks and interest rates , when stock losses are as big as they have been recently, it increases the tendency for rates to move in the same direction.  That was definitely the case today. Bonds (which dictate rates) improved overnight as stocks sank further. But as early as 7am, a reversal began to take shape. The catalyst was a comment from NY F...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 24
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
Tuesday, Nov 25
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly -2.5K
8:30AM Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) Sep 0.3% -0.1%
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM Sep 0.3% 0.7%
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales (%) Sep 0.4% 0.6%
9:00AM Sep CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Sep -0.6%
9:00AM Sep Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Sep 1.4% 1.6%
9:00AM Sep FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Sep 0.4%
9:00AM Sep FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Sep 2.3%
10:00AM Aug Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.1% 0.2%
10:00AM Nov CB Consumer Confidence (%) Nov 93.5 94.6
10:00AM Oct Pending Home Sales (%) Oct 0.0%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
1:00PM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.190%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE
Broker NMLS #1930964
Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498
License:
2481498
1930964