President
Colten Mortgage
License:
NMLS #6122
Company NMLS #14210

Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery

Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery

There's no question that stock prices and bond yields have had more than the normal amount of correlation recently. While that created some risk of a bond market weakness in the event of a stock market correction, those fears are proving unfounded over the past 2 trading days. Granted, stocks haven't surged, but they did move back to the highest levels in a week on Monday. But bonds didn't follow. In fact, after a microscopically stronger start, yields continued to fall gradually throughout the session, ultimately closing at the lowest level since the late October Fed meeting.

Market Movement Recap
08:53 AM

Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.05

12:04 PM

MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.047

02:52 PM

Best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.037

Latest Video Analysis

Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.66 +0.15 10YR 4.030% -0.034% 11/24/2025 4:39PM EST
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond market movement. Nonetheless, bonds have found a reason to rally ever-so-slightly this morning. Because yields were already at the low end of November's range on Friday afternoon, the result is that today's yields are the lowest we've seen since the late October Fed day. The next 2 days have quite a bit of data in addition to running...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.32% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.80% -0.02% 11/24/2025
Thanksgiving weeks can be weird for mortgage rates . This has to do with the fact that rates are dictated by the bond market and the bond market depends on real live people who can actually be out of the office on holiday weeks. The lighter levels of participation can increase volatility and cause random movement for no apparent reason. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. As far as Monday is concerned, there's no drama or weirdness to report. Bonds improved modestly ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 24
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
Tuesday, Nov 25
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly -2.5K
8:30AM Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) Sep 0.3% -0.1%
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM Sep 0.3% 0.7%
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales (%) Sep 0.4% 0.6%
9:00AM Sep CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Sep -0.6%
9:00AM Sep Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Sep 1.4% 1.6%
9:00AM Sep FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Sep 0.4%
9:00AM Sep FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Sep 2.3%
10:00AM Aug Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.1% 0.2%
10:00AM Nov CB Consumer Confidence (%) Nov 93.5 94.6
10:00AM Oct Pending Home Sales (%) Oct 0.0%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
1:00PM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.190%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE
President
Colten Mortgage
License:
NMLS #6122
Company NMLS #14210