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10yr Flirting With 4.0%, But Not Because of Data
10yr Flirting With 4.0%, But Not Because of Data
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Retail Sales with a notably weak -0.1 vs 0.3 control group. There too, zero bond market reaction. Thanksgiving week trading vibes are in full effect. Fortunately, the trading that immediately preceded the data was moderately stronger, leaving MBS to start the day up nearly an eighth of a point and 10yr yields down nearly 2bps at 4.011.
Lots of data but no reaction. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.02
holding best levels after more data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.005
Rates rallying on Hassett Fed Chair rumors. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 3.993
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov 25 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | -13.5K | -2.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Sep PPI YoY | Sep | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Producer Prices (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Sep | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 9:00AM | Sep CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Sep | -0.5% | -0.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Sep Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Sep | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| 9:00AM | Sep FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Sep | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 9:00AM | Sep FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Sep | 1.7% | 2.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Nov CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Nov | 88.7 | 93.4 | 94.6 |
| 10:00AM | Oct Pending Home Sales (%) | Oct | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.168% | 0.190% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 2:30PM | Oct Federal budget (bl) | Oct | $284B | $-223B | $198B |
| Wednesday, Nov 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Refi Index | Nov/21 | 1156.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/21 | 316.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/21 | 168.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core CapEx (%) | Sep | 0.6% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Durable goods (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP deflator (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 3% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 7.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.9% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/15 | 1974K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/22 | 225K | 220K | |
| 9:45AM | Nov Chicago PMI | Nov | 44.3 | 43.8 | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/21 | -3.426M | ||
| 11:30AM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
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