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Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as easily chalked up to random holiday-week volatility as any of the day's data/events. If we're determined to give credit to particulars, we can cite things like the 13.5k decline in weekly ADP payrolls, or the market's favorable reaction to rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner to be the next Fed Chair (Hasset is assumed to be extremely dovish). Most notably, bonds took no damage from another day of upward momentum in stock prices. Yields closed out with 10s right at 4.0%--the best end of day marks since the day before the October 29th Fed announcement (6th lowest close in more than a year).
Lots of data but no reaction. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.02
holding best levels after more data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.005
Rates rallying on Hassett Fed Chair rumors. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 3.993
Heading out with MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.001
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov 25 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | -13.5K | -2.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Sep PPI YoY | Sep | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Producer Prices (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Sep | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 9:00AM | Sep CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Sep | -0.5% | -0.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Sep Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Sep | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| 9:00AM | Sep FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Sep | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 9:00AM | Sep FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Sep | 1.7% | 2.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Nov CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Nov | 88.7 | 93.4 | 94.6 |
| 10:00AM | Oct Pending Home Sales (%) | Oct | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.168% | 0.190% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 2:30PM | Oct Federal budget (bl) | Oct | $284B | $-223B | $198B |
| Wednesday, Nov 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Refi Index | Nov/21 | 1156.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/21 | 316.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/21 | 168.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core CapEx (%) | Sep | 0.6% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Durable goods (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP deflator (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 3% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 7.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.9% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/15 | 1974K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/22 | 225K | 220K | |
| 9:45AM | Nov Chicago PMI | Nov | 44.3 | 43.8 | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/21 | -3.426M | ||
| 11:30AM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
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