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Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds
Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic releases. Jobless Claims data is probably the bigger deal as it continues to show no signs of labor market distress (216k vs 225k f'cast). The other report, Durable Goods, is more stale (pre-shutdown), but was also clearly upbeat with the core cap-ex figure coming in at a robust 0.9% vs 0.2% f'cast. The resulting sell-off in bonds is minimal but not massive. 10yr yields are up only 2.5bps at 4.021 and MBS are down less than an eighth.
modestly weaker after data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.018
Volatility centered on 10am ET, but now back near best levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 0.6bps at 4.002
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Refi Index | Nov/21 | 1090.4 | 1156.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/21 | 317.6 | 316.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/21 | 181.6 | 168.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core CapEx (%) | Sep | 0.9% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Durable goods (%) | Sep | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/15 | 1960K | 1974K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/22 | 216K | 225K | 220K |
| 9:45AM | Nov Chicago PMI | Nov | 36.3 | 44.3 | 43.8 |
| 10:30AM | Nov/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/21 | 2.774M | -0.5M | -3.426M |
| 11:30AM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Nov 27 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Thanksgiving Day | ||||
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