Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's economic data, the impact was minimal. Random holiday-week volatility accounted for bigger swings, but those swings ultimately canceled each other out. By the 3pm close, bonds were close enough to unchanged levels. That makes today truly forgettable in the bigger picture. Trading doesn't get real/serious again until December. NOTE: Friday is technically open until 2pm ET, but as is our custom, we will only publish commentary on an "as-needed" basis (i.e. if the movement is minimal, you won't hear from us until Monday).
modestly weaker after data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.018
Volatility centered on 10am ET, but now back near best levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 0.6bps at 4.002
Approaching 3pm CME close with 10yr yields nearly unchanged at 3.999 and MBS down 1 tick (.03).
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Refi Index | Nov/21 | 1090.4 | 1156.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/21 | 317.6 | 316.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/21 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/21 | 181.6 | 168.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core CapEx (%) | Sep | 0.9% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Durable goods (%) | Sep | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/15 | 1960K | 1974K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/22 | 216K | 225K | 220K |
| 9:45AM | Nov Chicago PMI | Nov | 36.3 | 44.3 | 43.8 |
| 10:30AM | Nov/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/21 | 2.774M | -0.5M | -3.426M |
| 11:30AM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Nov 27 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Thanksgiving Day | ||||
