Complete Silence After AM Volatility

Complete Silence After AM Volatility

Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am through 10am ET. After that, momentum went flat again--especially the last 4 hours of trading.  No one is still debating whether or not the AM sell-off was due to Japan's central bank news or a post-holiday return to reality. Yields are back in the pre-Thanksgiving range and ready to respond to this week's bigger-ticket econ reports.

Latest Video Analysis

Complete Silence After AM Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.50 -0.03 10YR 4.111% +0.023% 12/2/2025 8:29AM EST
Bonds are sharply weaker to begin the new week and the new month. This is the first (and probably best) clue as to the nature of this morning's market movement. Thanksgiving weeks are prone to random volatility and today's selling basically erases the entirety of last week's movement. Then there's the Bank of Japan's comments on considering rate hikes at the next meeting. Past examples of policy shifts in Japan are burned into the memory of US markets as the source of several...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.31% +0.09% 15YR Fixed 5.80% +0.02% 12/1/2025
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is prone to erratic behavior on major holiday weeks. One of the more common patterns is for the holiday week to see a noticeable departure from a prevailing trend only to return to that trend in the following week.  That's exactly what we're seeing on the first day of the new week. The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s.  Last week saw...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Dec 02
10:00AM Nov Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Nov 15.4M 15.3M
10:00AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:10AM Dec IBD economic optimism Dec 44.1 43.9
Wednesday, Dec 03
7:00AM Nov/28 Mortgage Market Index Nov/28 317.6
7:00AM Nov/28 MBA Refi Index Nov/28 1090.4
7:00AM Nov/28 MBA Purchase Index Nov/28 181.6
8:15AM Nov ADP jobs (k) Nov 10K 42K
8:30AM Sep Import prices mm (%) Sep 0.1% 0.3%
8:30AM Sep Export prices mm (%) Sep 0% 0.3%
9:15AM Sep Industrial Production (%) Sep 0.1% 0.1%
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Services PMI Nov 55.0 54.8
9:45AM Nov S&P Global Composite PMI Nov 54.8 54.6
10:00AM Nov ISM N-Mfg PMI Nov 52.1 52.4
10:00AM Nov ISM Services New Orders Nov 56.2
10:00AM Nov ISM Services Prices Nov 70.0
10:00AM Nov ISM Biz Activity Nov 54.3
10:00AM Nov ISM Services Employment Nov 48.2
10:30AM Nov/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Nov/28 2.774M
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE