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Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data
Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility. Most of the gains arrived between 6am and 7:30am ET and yields are actually back in line with pre-ADP levels by 8:30am. The morning's next big report is ISM Services at 10am ET.
10yr down 3bps at 4.06 and MBS up more than an eighth of a point even before the ADP data. Little-changed since then.
Steady Gains Throughout The Day
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 03 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/28 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/28 | 313.0 | 317.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/28 MBA Refi Index | Nov/28 | 1041.9 | 1090.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/28 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/28 | 186.1 | 181.6 | |
| 8:15AM | Nov ADP jobs (k) | Nov | -32K | 10K | 42K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Import prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 9:15AM | Sep Industrial Production (%) | Sep | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 55.0 | 54.8 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.8 | 54.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM N-Mfg PMI | Nov | 52.1 | 52.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services New Orders | Nov | 56.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Prices | Nov | 70.0 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Biz Activity | Nov | 54.3 | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov ISM Services Employment | Nov | 48.2 | ||
| 10:30AM | Nov/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/28 | -1.7M | 2.774M | |
| Thursday, Dec 04 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Nov Challenger layoffs (k) | Nov | 153.074K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Sep | $-65.5B | $-59.6B | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/22 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/22 | 1960K | 1960K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/29 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/29 | 220K | 216K | |
| 12:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
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