Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022
Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern.
moderately weaker overnight with additional temporary selling after jobless claims data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.093
10yr yields are up 4bps at 4.104. MBS down 5 ticks (.16).
Weaker Data Endorses In-Progress Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Dec 04 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Nov Challenger layoffs (k) | Nov | 71.321K | 153.074K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/22 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/22 | 1939K | 1960K | 1960K |
| 8:30AM | Nov/29 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/29 | 191K | 220K | 216K |
| 10:00AM | Sep Factory orders mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| 12:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| Friday, Dec 05 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 51.3 | 51.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 4.5% | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | 0.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 52 | 51.0 | |
| 3:00PM | Oct Consumer credit (bl) | Oct | $10.5B | $13.09B | |
