Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overused explanation for past movement, let alone for the prediction of future movement. In this week's case, however, the consolidation pattern in bond yields offers one of the only ways to understand the otherwise inexplicable selling pressure. Long story short, the weakness was just the right size and pace to complete the pattern heading into events with more power to inspire definitive reactions and lasting momentum.
Modestly weaker overnight but recovering a bit. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.11
10yr yields are up 3bps at 4.128. MBS are down only 3 ticks (.09) on the day.
MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.129
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 05 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 50.7 | 51.3 | 51.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 4.1% | 4.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 53.3 | 52 | 51.0 |
| 3:00PM | Oct Consumer credit (bl) | Oct | $9.18B | $10.5B | $13.09B |
| Monday, Dec 08 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Nov Consumer Inflation Expectations | Nov | 3.2% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
