Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure

Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure

In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overused explanation for past movement, let alone for the prediction of future movement. In this week's case, however, the consolidation pattern in bond yields offers one of the only ways to understand the otherwise inexplicable selling pressure. Long story short, the weakness was just the right size and pace to complete the pattern heading into events with more power to inspire definitive reactions and lasting momentum.

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Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.42 -0.13 10YR 4.154% +0.017% 12/8/2025 7:34AM EST
Mini snowball selling in bonds now has 10yr yields up 4bps at 4.138 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day. Lenders who priced near 9:30am are seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness and are thus more likely to be considering negative reprices.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.27% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.00% 12/5/2025
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week's movement was especially abrupt. That's interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week. It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the heavier hitting events on the horizon. Next Tuesday's Job Openings data is on the watch list. It will be the first major October ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Dec 08
11:00AM Nov Consumer Inflation Expectations Nov 3.2%
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Tuesday, Dec 09
6:00AM Nov NFIB Business Optimism Index Nov 98.4 98.2
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly -13.5K
10:00AM Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Sep 7.2M 7.227M
10:00AM Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Sep 3.091M
10:00AM Oct USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Oct
10:00AM Oct JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Oct
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.700%
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
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December 10th will be the most interesting Fed announcement in more than a year.  It's the first time since mid-2024 where a rate cut (or lack thereof) has not been a foregone conclusion. This means the Fed has a chance, albeit a small one, to surprise the market.  The market currently sees a better-than-85% chance of a cut at next week's meeting according to Fed Funds Futures (contra... READ MORE