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Job Openings Data Causing Weakness in Bonds
Job Openings Data Causing Weakness in Bonds
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipation for the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). True to form, volume spiked to its highest levels since the 11/20 delayed release of the jobs report. Unfortunately for bonds, job openings came in higher. The saving grace is that the "quits" rate fell to the lowest levels of the cycle (lower quits = good for rates, all else equal). The net effect is still a sell-off in bonds, but not as forceful a sell-off as it could have been without the mixed signals.
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 09 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Nov NFIB Business Optimism Index | Nov | 99.0 | 98.4 | 98.2 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 4.75K | -13.5K | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Sep | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Sep | 7.658M | 7.2M | 7.227M |
| 10:00AM | Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Sep | 3.128M | 3.091M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Oct | 7.670M | 7.658M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Oct | 2.941M | 3.128M | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.650% | 3.700% | ||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| Wednesday, Dec 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Refi Index | Dec/05 | 1190.6 | 1041.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/05 | 181.6 | 186.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/05 | 327.9 | 313.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 10:30AM | Dec/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/05 | -1.812M | -2.3M | 0.574M |
| 2:00PM | Nov Federal budget (bl) | Nov | $-173B | $-205B | $-284B |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | 4.0% | |
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | 3.4% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | 3.1% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | 3.1% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | 3% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.6% | 3.6% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
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