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Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response to the JOLTS data. From here, this week's volatility potential hinges on the Fed. Fed Funds Futures suggest that there's been no change in rate cut prospects for Wednesday's meeting. It remains a nearly a 90% probability and thus a non-event when the cut is announced. The more important events will be the 2pm ET release of the dot plot (individual Fed member forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate) and the 2:30pm press conference with Fed Chair Powell. While it may be fashionable to hold the cynical view that Powell's pressers "always" hurt rates, that's certainly not the case and we have no way to know if it will be the case on Wednesday. At the very least, the bearish set-up over the past 2 weeks should tell you that anything can happen (considering Fed rate cut days have often pushed back against the prevailing trend in rates).
Sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but now weaker after JOLTS data. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.178
Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.185
Drifting out at weakest levels. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.185
All About Dot Plot and Powell
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 09 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Nov NFIB Business Optimism Index | Nov | 99.0 | 98.4 | 98.2 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 4.75K | -13.5K | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Sep | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Sep | 7.658M | 7.2M | 7.227M |
| 10:00AM | Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Sep | 3.128M | 3.091M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Oct | 7.670M | 7.658M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Oct | 2.941M | 3.128M | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.650% | 3.700% | ||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| Wednesday, Dec 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Refi Index | Dec/05 | 1041.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/05 | 186.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/05 | 313.0 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10:30AM | Dec/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/05 | 0.574M | ||
| 2:00PM | Nov Federal budget (bl) | Nov | $-205B | $-284B | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 4.0% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.6% | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
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