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Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Today's gains ended up being all about Powell's press conference. While there were a few potentially friendly comments (current rates in high end of neutral range, recent job gains overstated, no decision yet on January, inflation coming down), we can also consider that Powell simply avoided the same sort of hawkish reminders seen in the last press conference. On a day where bonds had already been selling fairly aggressively for 2 weeks, this could be all the market needed to breathe a sigh of relief and reinforce the ceiling of the prevailing trading range. All in all a fairly tame Fed day reaction, but one with a happy ending nonetheless.
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Refi Index | Dec/05 | 1190.6 | 1041.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/05 | 181.6 | 186.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/05 | 327.9 | 313.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 10:30AM | Dec/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/05 | -1.812M | -2.3M | 0.574M |
| 2:00PM | Nov Federal budget (bl) | Nov | $-173B | $-205B | $-284B |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | 4.0% | |
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | 3.4% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | 3.1% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | 3.1% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | 3% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.6% | 3.6% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Dec 11 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Trade Gap (bl) | Sep | $-52.8B | $-63.3B | $-59.6B |
| 8:30AM | Oct PPI YoY | Oct | 2.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Oct | 0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Producer Prices (%) | Oct | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/06 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/06 | 236K | 220K | 191K |
| 8:30AM | Nov/29 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/29 | 1838K | 1950K | 1939K |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.773% | 4.694% | ||
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