Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest overnight gains eroding to roughly unchanged levels by the 3pm close. There were no catalysts worth discussing, and even if there were, they'd pale in comparison to the inbound econ data. Tuesday morning brings the first post-shutdown jobs report, albeit a week and a half later than normal. With payrolls counts not carrying as much weight as they used to, don't be surprised to see an increased focus on the unemployment rate. While some of the full-fledged reaction could be held back until traders get Thursday's CPI data, the jobs report nonetheless could be the heaviest hitting report we've seen in several months. Then again, its ability to cause volume/volatility are heavily dependent on how far it falls from forecasts.
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 16 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.25K | 4.75K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Participation Rate | Nov | 62.5% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Average earnings mm (%) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (%) | Oct | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Oct | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Oct | -105K | 51K | 119K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Nov | 64K | 50K | -105K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Unemployment rate mm (%) | Nov | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 53.0 | 54.2 | |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Dec | 51.8 | 52 | 52.2 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 52.9 | 54 | 54.1 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Business Inventories (% ) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 7:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) | ||||
| Wednesday, Dec 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/12 | 181.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Refi Index | Dec/12 | 1190.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/12 | 327.9 | ||
| 8:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales (%) | Nov | 0% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Nov | |||
| 9:05AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Oct Business Inventories (% ) | Oct | 0.2% | ||
| 10:30AM | Dec/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/12 | -1.812M | ||
| 12:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
