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Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was the uptick in unemployment from 4.4 to 4.6%, and if that was the last of this week's big ticket econ data, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a more aggressive rate rally. As it stands, unemployment was tempered by a higher participation rate and less dire unrounded numbers (taken together, these actually made unemployment closer to unchanged). Add in stronger payroll growth, a surge in core retail sales, and the need to wait and see how Thursday's CPI comes out, and the choppy, lackluster rally is easier to reconcile.
Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.167
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/12 | 176.5 | 181.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Refi Index | Dec/12 | 1148.3 | 1190.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/12 | 315.6 | 327.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Dec/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/12 | -1.274M | -1.1M | -1.812M |
| 12:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Thursday, Dec 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Philly Fed Prices Paid | Dec | 56.10 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov y/y Headline CPI (%) | Nov | 3.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/13 | 225K | 236K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/06 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/06 | 1930K | 1838K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Philly Fed Business Index | Dec | 3 | -1.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov m/m Headline CPI (%) | Nov | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov y/y CORE CPI (%) | Nov | 3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov m/m CORE CPI (%) | Nov | 0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Nov | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 24 | |||
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