|
|
Quiet Calendar Ahead of Thursday's CPI
Quiet Calendar Ahead of Thursday's CPI
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade big ticket econ data until the early January jobs report. CPI has stepped in to fill the shoes that yesterday's jobs report was apparently unable to fill. Specifically, it will round out the first half of the Fed's next round of rate cut deliberations in late January. As a placeholder, today's trading is meaningless if yields remain under 4.20 and above 4.10. With a modest morning recovery bringing yields to 4.10.
Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.167
Back near unchanged levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 0.3 bps at 4.144
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/12 | 176.5 | 181.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Refi Index | Dec/12 | 1148.3 | 1190.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/12 | 315.6 | 327.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Dec/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/12 | -1.274M | -1.1M | -1.812M |
| 12:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Thursday, Dec 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Philly Fed Prices Paid | Dec | 56.10 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov y/y Headline CPI (%) | Nov | 3.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/13 | 225K | 236K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/06 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/06 | 1930K | 1838K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Philly Fed Business Index | Dec | 3 | -1.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov m/m Headline CPI (%) | Nov | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov y/y CORE CPI (%) | Nov | 3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov m/m CORE CPI (%) | Nov | 0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Nov | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 24 | |||
|
|
|
