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Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would come in at 2.6% vs 3.0% year over year, they would have expected a much bigger reaction than we saw today. Ironically, the size of the miss may be one of those reasons. It's so far outside the realm of expected possibilities that traders immediately assumed the presence of legitimate issues with November's data collection. Nonetheless, it was worth a moderate extension of the overnight rally.
Rallying after CPI data. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.115
Off best levels. MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.127
MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.117
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Dec 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Philly Fed Prices Paid | Dec | 43.60 | 56.10 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov y/y Headline CPI (%) | Nov | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| 8:30AM | Dec/13 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/13 | 224K | 225K | 236K |
| 8:30AM | Dec/06 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/06 | 1897K | 1930K | 1838K |
| 8:30AM | Dec Philly Fed Business Index | Dec | -10.2 | 3 | -1.7 |
| 8:30AM | Nov y/y CORE CPI (%) | Nov | 2.6% | 3% | 3.0% |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 24 | |||
| Friday, Dec 19 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 50.7 | 51.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 53.4 | 51.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 4.1% | 4.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Nov | 1.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov Existing home sales (ml) | Nov | 4.2M | 4.1M | |
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