KV Mortgage

Bond Market in Holiday Mode

Bond Market in Holiday Mode

Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan's rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January.

Latest Video Analysis

Bond Market in Holiday Mode

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.58 -0.09 10YR 4.167% +0.027% 12/22/2025 5:56AM EST
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to the U.S. bond market. While it was clearly relevant for Japan, it's hard to make the case that it had any impact on overnight Treasury trading.  It's always worth remembering that Japan's biggest impacts on the U.S. bond market are driven by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and not the BOJ.  In any event, today's char...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.25% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.01% 12/19/2025
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There's no repeatable formula for this. We sim...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Dec 22
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $6.801 million
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
Tuesday, Dec 23
8:00AM Nov Building Permits (ml) Nov
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.25K
8:30AM Q3 Corporate profits (% ) Q3 0.2%
8:30AM Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q3 2.9% 2.6%
8:30AM Oct Durable goods (%) Oct -1.5% 0.5%
8:30AM Oct Core CapEx (%) Oct 0.9%
8:30AM Q3 GDP (%) Q3 3.2% 3.8%
9:15AM Oct Industrial Production (%) Oct 0.1% 0.1%
9:15AM Nov Industrial Production (%) Nov
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (%) (%) Sep 20.5%
10:00AM Oct New Home Sales (%) (%) Oct
10:00AM Nov New Home Sales (%) (%) Nov
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (ml) Sep 0.71M 0.8M
10:00AM Oct New Home Sales (ml) Oct
10:00AM Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) Dec 92 88.7
10:00AM Nov New Home Sales (ml) Nov
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
1:00PM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.168%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE
KV Mortgage