Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition

Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition

Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and held mostly sideways for the entire day. There were no meaningful market movers in play, let alone any meaningful movement. Volume clocked in at the lowest non-holiday level of the year. NOTE: this week's analysis will be shorter and more basic than normal unless something interesting happens.

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Range-Bound Cruise Control PM Edition

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.64 -0.01 10YR 4.165% +0.005% 12/23/2025 5:00PM EST
ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K vs -- f'cast, 16.25K prev Core CapEx (Oct) 0.5% vs -- f'cast, 0.9% prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ3 2.90% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.6% prev Corporate profitsQ3 4.4% vs -- f'cast, 0.2% prev Durable goods (Oct) -2.2% vs -1.5% f'cast, 0.5% prev  GDP (Q3) 4.3 vs 3.3 f'cast  Bonds are under a modicum of pressure after starting the day in stronger territory.  T...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.24% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.01% 12/23/2025
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months.  If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Dec 23
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K 16.25K
8:30AM Q3 Corporate profits (% ) Q3 4.4% 0.2%
8:30AM Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q3 2.9% 2.9% 2.6%
8:30AM Oct Durable goods (%) Oct -2.2% -1.5% 0.5%
8:30AM Oct Core CapEx (%) Oct 0.5% 0.9%
8:30AM Q3 GDP (%) Q3 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%
9:15AM Oct Industrial Production (%) Oct -0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10:00AM Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) Dec 89.1 91 88.7
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Wednesday, Dec 24
7:00AM Dec/19 MBA Purchase Index Dec/19 169.9 176.5
7:00AM Dec/19 Mortgage Market Index Dec/19 299.8 315.6
7:00AM Dec/19 MBA Refi Index Dec/19 1084.3 1148.3
8:30AM Dec/13 Continued Claims (k) Dec/13 1923K 1897K
8:30AM Dec/20 Jobless Claims (k) Dec/20 214K 223K 224K
11:30AM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
2:00PM Christmas Eve
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The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE