GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion
GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/liquidity/participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that's more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off somewhat sharply. Rather than fly in the face of the holiday trading environment realities, this is actually a prime example. The best evidence for this is the discrepancy between the size of the movement in bonds and the associated volume. Simply put, the movement in bonds is much larger than the reactions to NFP (jobs report) or CPI, but the volume isn't even close to half the size.
MBS are now down 1-2 ticks (.03-0.06) and 10yr yields are up roughly 1bp at 4.169
Bonds sold off a bit more after the last update, but are now back to similar levels with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.1 bps at 4.17
Range-Bound Cruise Control PM Edition
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 23 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11.5K | 16.25K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Corporate profits (% ) | Q3 | 4.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Durable goods (%) | Oct | -2.2% | -1.5% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core CapEx (%) | Oct | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| 9:15AM | Oct Industrial Production (%) | Oct | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Dec | 89.1 | 91 | 88.7 |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| Wednesday, Dec 24 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/19 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/19 | 176.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/19 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/19 | 315.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/19 MBA Refi Index | Dec/19 | 1148.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/13 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/13 | 1897K | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/20 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/20 | 223K | 224K | |
| 11:30AM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 2:00PM | Christmas Eve | ||||