GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion

GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion

We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/liquidity/participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that's more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off somewhat sharply. Rather than fly in the face of the holiday trading environment realities, this is actually a prime example. The best evidence for this is the discrepancy between the size of the movement in bonds and the associated volume. Simply put, the movement in bonds is much larger than the reactions to NFP (jobs report) or CPI, but the volume isn't even close to half the size.

Market Movement Recap
08:35 AM

MBS are now down 1-2 ticks (.03-0.06) and 10yr yields are up roughly 1bp at 4.169

11:46 AM

Bonds sold off a bit more after the last update, but are now back to similar levels with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.1 bps at 4.17

02:00 PM

Sideways since last update. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.167

Latest Video Analysis

Range-Bound Cruise Control PM Edition

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.58 -0.06 10YR 4.168% +0.008% 12/23/2025 2:01PM EST
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/ liquidity /participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that's more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off somewhat sharply. Rather than fly in the face of the holiday trading environment realities, this is actually a prime example. T...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.24% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.01% 12/23/2025
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months.  If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Dec 23
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K 16.25K
8:30AM Q3 Corporate profits (% ) Q3 4.4% 0.2%
8:30AM Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q3 2.9% 2.9% 2.6%
8:30AM Oct Durable goods (%) Oct -2.2% -1.5% 0.5%
8:30AM Oct Core CapEx (%) Oct 0.5% 0.9%
8:30AM Q3 GDP (%) Q3 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%
9:15AM Oct Industrial Production (%) Oct -0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
10:00AM Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) Dec 89.1 91 88.7
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Wednesday, Dec 24
7:00AM Dec/19 MBA Purchase Index Dec/19 176.5
7:00AM Dec/19 Mortgage Market Index Dec/19 315.6
7:00AM Dec/19 MBA Refi Index Dec/19 1148.3
8:30AM Dec/13 Continued Claims (k) Dec/13 1897K
8:30AM Dec/20 Jobless Claims (k) Dec/20 223K 224K
11:30AM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
2:00PM Christmas Eve
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE