Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, but markets didn't seem to think so in the hour following this morning's release. GDP was much stronger than expected and bonds traded it like it was a legit market mover. But most of the reaction was a holiday-induced amplification of what might have otherwise only caused barely-noticeable weakness in bonds. That point was driven home by the end of the day as both Treasuries and MBS returned to unchanged levels.
MBS are now down 1-2 ticks (.03-0.06) and 10yr yields are up roughly 1bp at 4.169
Bonds sold off a bit more after the last update, but are now back to similar levels with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.1 bps at 4.17
Sideways since last update. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.167
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 23 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11.5K | 16.25K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Corporate profits (% ) | Q3 | 4.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Durable goods (%) | Oct | -2.2% | -1.5% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core CapEx (%) | Oct | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| 9:15AM | Oct Industrial Production (%) | Oct | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Dec | 89.1 | 91 | 88.7 |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| Wednesday, Dec 24 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/19 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/19 | 176.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/19 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/19 | 315.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/19 MBA Refi Index | Dec/19 | 1148.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/13 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/13 | 1897K | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec/20 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/20 | 223K | 224K | |
| 11:30AM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 2:00PM | Christmas Eve | ||||
