Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session

Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session

Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neither an official holiday nor an early close day, but considering Christmas fell on a Thursday and the federal employee holiday, trading is just as sparse as it was on Christmas Eve. Algorithmic trading programs are doing the vast majority of market making (i.e. determining prevailing levels for buyers and sellers). Bonds will remain sideways in a very narrow range until non-algo trades force a modest move higher or lower. At that point, yields can make a short run in the direction implied by those trades before leveling off in a sideways pattern to wait for the next legit input. If you prefer, you can disregard all of the above and simply understand that the next "real" trading in the bond market won't happen until the week of January 5th. 

Market Movement Recap
10:31 AM

modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.12

12:27 PM

Off the best levels. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up 1bps at 4.142

Latest Video Analysis

Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.84 +0.03 10YR 4.138% +0.006% 12/26/2025 1:40PM EST
This is more of a heads-up than a high-urgency reprice alert. If you were going to lock or float today, nothing that's happening right now should change your mind. But the "lock" crowd has a bit less incentive to wait. MBS are off the AM highs to the tune of 5 ticks (.16). Jumpier lenders could technically justify a negative reprice, but it's worth considering that pricing strategies on days like today can be very different than normal.  For example if your opening ra...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.74% +0.00% 12/26/2025
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates , but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Dec 26
Monday, Dec 29
10:00AM Nov Pending Home Sales (%) Nov 1% 1.9%
10:30AM Dec/19 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Dec/19 -2.6M -1.274M
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE