Chris Jones NMLS ID 130813
Mortgage Loan Officer
NEXA Mortgage, LLC
P: (312) 505-9949
M: (312) 505-9949
www.chrisjonesmortgagegroup.com
3100 W Ray Road Suite 201
Office 209
Chandler AZ 85226
License:
Corporate NMLS ID: 1660690

Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness

Bonds were slightly weaker this morning in a move that looked like it might have been significant when compared to yesterday's narrow range.  But in a just-barely-wider context, today's volatility was just as inconsequential as almost any of the days in December so far.  With that, we'll continue to count down to next week's bigger-ticket data and more robust trader participation. 

Latest Video Analysis

Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.91 +0.01 10YR 4.123% +0.001% 12/31/2025 2:27AM EST
Meaningless Year-End Volatility
If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr yields were up by more than 3bps at one point and MBS fell just over an eighth of a point. These may seem like big swings relative to yesterday's narrow range, but this is actually a rather tame expression of year-end volatility. To understand a bit more about month/quarter/year-end trading motivations, check out our primer on t...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Mostly Sideways Despite Some Help From Europe
Alert:
MBS Down an Eighth From Highs
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.01% 12/30/2025
Mortgage Rates Microscopically Higher
Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of 2025. Today is tied for 7th place after rates moved 0.01% higher on average. While the underlying bond market is fully open today, it's a slow time of year in terms of volume and volatility. Bigger movement becomes more likely by the end of next week thanks to the return of important economic reports and stronger trader parti...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Dec 31
7:00AM Dec/26 Mortgage Market Index Dec/26 299.8
7:00AM Dec/26 MBA Purchase Index Dec/26 169.9
7:00AM Dec/26 MBA Refi Index Dec/26 1084.3
8:30AM Dec/27 Jobless Claims (k) Dec/27 220K 214K
8:30AM Dec/20 Continued Claims (k) Dec/20 1923K
10:30AM Dec/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Dec/26 -2M 0.405M
2:00PM New Year's Eve
Thursday, Jan 01
12:00AM New Years Day
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Mortgage Market in Holiday Mode Despite Big-Ticket Data
12/19/2025 4:08PM
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE
Mortgage Calculators
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-  Loan Comparison
-  Advanced Loan Comparison
-  Early Payoff
-  Should I Refinance?
-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
Chris Jones NMLS ID 130813
Mortgage Loan Officer
NEXA Mortgage, LLC
P: (312) 505-9949
M: (312) 505-9949
www.chrisjonesmortgagegroup.com
3100 W Ray Road Suite 201
Office 209
Chandler AZ 85226
License:
Corporate NMLS ID: 1660690
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.