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A Bit of Actual Data-Driven Selling Thanks to Jobless Claims
A Bit of Actual Data-Driven Selling Thanks to Jobless Claims
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print. Robots are also not smart enough to know that the sub-200k print is likely distorted by the uncommon occurrence of Christmas falling on a Thursday (last time was 2014). This means seasonal adjustment factors are attuned to more common scenarios where x-mas falls on a Monday. The same issue cropped up after Thanksgiving and claims bounced back in line with the trend the following week. Nonetheless, there's no other input for rates to trade this morning, so we're losing ground.
losing ground after claims data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.144
Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Dec 31 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec/27 Jobless Claims (k) | Dec/27 | 199K | 220K | 214K |
| 8:30AM | Dec/20 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/20 | 1866K | 1923K | |
| 10:30AM | Dec/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/26 | -1.934M | -0.9M | 0.405M |
| 2:00PM | New Year's Eve | ||||
| Thursday, Jan 01 | |||||
| 12:00AM | New Years Day | ||||
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