Token Year-End Volatility

Token Year-End Volatility

Wednesday's shortened session offered more excitement than the first two days of the week. There was a modicum of legitimate data-driven selling this morning in response to the jobless claims data. Bonds had trudged most of the way back toward unchanged levels by 1pm ET, but volatility picked up again at that point. While 2pm is the official early close, 1pm is the cut-off for many of the largest traders to close out their year-end positions. This makes for a big spike in volume at that time, and it can also result in a quick jolt to prices/yields.  As far as year-end jolts go, today's was pretty normal and should not be taken as a sign of any underlying predisposition in the market. 

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Token Year-End Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.73 -0.18 10YR 4.169% +0.046% 12/31/2025 5:59PM EST
MBS are down a quick eighth of a point from the most recent highs.  Unless a lender repriced for the better at those highs, negative reprice risk is minimal and, indeed, not at all justified by this amount of movement (i.e. this is a "heads-up" alert simply to explain the jumpiness.  While the official early close is still one hour away, the cut-off time for most large traders is/was 1pm ET. There's been a typical surge of volume around that time. A quick jolt of...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.01% 12/31/2025
Although Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey (released today) suggested the lowest rates since October 2024, our daily numbers offer a bit more nuance. To be sure, October 28th and September 16th both saw distinctly lower rates this year.   Today's rates are right in line with yesterday's as well as last Friday's.  In other words, this week is flat compared to Friday although the average rate is lower so far. The bond market closes early today and wil...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jan 01
12:00AM New Years Day
Friday, Jan 02
9:45AM Dec S&P Global Manuf. PMI Dec 51.8 52.2
10:00AM Nov Construction spending (%) Nov
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The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE