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Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
While there was some relevant econ data today (ISM Manufacturing), it didn't have an obvious impact on the bond market. Nonetheless, volume was back at pre-holiday levels. Notably, Dec 11(day after Fed day) was the last day of 2025 that wasn't affected by progressively lighter participation. 10yr yields closed at 4.15% on that day--the same level as today. The winter holidays don't always work out this perfectly, but it couldn't have been any more perfect this year. From here, we can plug back into the incoming econ data and read more significance into any major responses.
Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 06 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.165 million | |||
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 52.5 | 52.9 | 54.1 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 52.7 | 53.0 | 54.2 |
| Wednesday, Jan 07 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/26 | 269.9 | 299.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/26 | 169.8 | 169.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Refi Index | Dec/26 | 872.1 | 1084.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Refi Index | Jan/02 | 937 | 872.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/02 | 159.3 | 169.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/02 | 270.8 | 269.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Dec ADP jobs (k) | Dec | 41K | 47K | -32K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | -1.3% | -1.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Biz Activity | Dec | 56.0 | 54.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Prices | Dec | 64.3 | 65.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services New Orders | Dec | 57.9 | 52.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Employment | Dec | 52.0 | 48.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Nov | 3.161M | 2.941M | |
| 10:00AM | Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Nov | 7.146M | 7.60M | 7.670M |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI | Dec | 54.4 | 52.3 | 52.6 |
| 10:30AM | Jan/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/02 | -3.831M | 1.1M | -1.934M |
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