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Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
There was certainly the potential for volatility today with the confluence of ADP, ISM, and Job Openings data. But the results ended up being close enough to consensus to obviate any massive reactions. Yields hit their lowest levels in a week after ADP came in slightly softer, but most of the rally was already in place from the overnight session. Stronger ISM and job openings pushed bonds back in the other direction, but not enough to result in bond market losses or negative reprices.
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 07 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/26 | 269.9 | 299.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/26 | 169.8 | 169.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Refi Index | Dec/26 | 872.1 | 1084.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Refi Index | Jan/02 | 937 | 872.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/02 | 159.3 | 169.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/02 | 270.8 | 269.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Dec ADP jobs (k) | Dec | 41K | 47K | -32K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | -1.3% | -1.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Biz Activity | Dec | 56.0 | 54.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Prices | Dec | 64.3 | 65.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services New Orders | Dec | 57.9 | 52.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Employment | Dec | 52.0 | 48.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Nov | 3.161M | 2.941M | |
| 10:00AM | Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Nov | 7.146M | 7.60M | 7.670M |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI | Dec | 54.4 | 52.3 | 52.6 |
| 10:30AM | Jan/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/02 | -3.831M | 1.1M | -1.934M |
| Thursday, Jan 08 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Dec Challenger layoffs (k) | Dec | 35.553K | 71.321K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Trade Gap (bl) | Oct | $-29.4B | $-58.9B | $-52.8B |
| 8:30AM | Jan/03 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/03 | 208K | 210K | 199K |
| 8:30AM | Dec/27 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/27 | 1914K | 1900K | 1866K |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.165 million | |||
| 11:00AM | Dec Consumer Inflation Expectations | Dec | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 3:00PM | Nov Consumer credit (bl) | Nov | $4.23B | $10B | $9.18B |
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