Chris Guccione

No Help From Jobless Claims or Europe

No Help From Jobless Claims or Europe

US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic. The 8:30am Jobless Claims data may be garnering more volume, but it has only added modestly to the morning's selling pressure so far. 

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Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.11 +0.27 10YR 4.171% +0.016% 1/8/2026 5:00PM EST
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic. The 8:30am Jobless Claims data may be garnering more volume, but it has only added modestly to the morning's selling pressure so far.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.21% +0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.74% +0.01% 1/8/2026
Wednesday had the potential to cause bigger volatility for rates due to the confluence of several important economic reports. If that data had been lopsided in one direction or the other, rates likely would have moved more. As it happened, the data was mixed. The net effect was an exceedingly modest drop in the average 30yr fixed rate. Despite the tiny move, this brings MND's 30yr fixed rate index back in line with the 2-month lows seen on several recent occasions. Bottom l...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jan 08
5:30AM Dec Challenger layoffs (k) Dec 35.553K 71.321K
8:30AM Oct Trade Gap (bl) Oct $-29.4B $-58.9B $-52.8B
8:30AM Jan/03 Jobless Claims (k) Jan/03 208K 210K 199K
8:30AM Dec/27 Continued Claims (k) Dec/27 1914K 1900K 1866K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.165 million
11:00AM Dec Consumer Inflation Expectations Dec 3.4% 3.2%
3:00PM Nov Consumer credit (bl) Nov $4.23B $10B $9.18B
Friday, Jan 09
8:30AM Dec Participation Rate Dec 62.4% 62.5%
8:30AM Dec Average earnings mm (%) Dec 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
8:30AM Dec Non Farm Payrolls (k) Dec 50K 60K 64K
8:30AM Dec Unemployment rate mm (%) Dec 4.4% 4.5% 4.6%
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jan 3.2%
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jan 4.2%
10:00AM Jan U Mich conditions Jan 50.4
10:00AM Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jan 53.5 52.9
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE
Chris Guccione