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Fairly Tame Jobs Report, MBS Have Magic Armor Either Way
Fairly Tame Jobs Report, MBS Have Magic Armor Either Way
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. The unemployment rate decline is mitigated somewhat by the decline in labor force participation. All in all, this is not a lopsided report with any chance of sparking a rapid move in bonds. That said, MBS are moving rapidly higher and it has nothing to do with data and everything to do with last night's announcement of the administration's plans to buy $200bln in MBS. Simply put, Treasuries are roughly unchanged while MBS are up half a point.
Treasuries losing some ground after jobs report. up 2.2bps at 4.194. MBS up massively on the day still due to last night's Trump headlines.
10yr up 2.2bps at 4.194. MBS still outperforming, but sobering up and now only up 6 ticks (.19).
Massive MBS volatility. More sobering up. 5.0 coupons now unchanged on the day. 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.195
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jan 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Participation Rate | Dec | 62.4% | 62.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Average earnings mm (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Dec | 50K | 60K | 64K |
| 8:30AM | Dec Unemployment rate mm (%) | Dec | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jan | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jan | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan U Mich conditions | Jan | 52.4 | 50.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jan | 54.0 | 53.5 | 52.9 |
| Monday, Jan 12 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
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