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Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
We may have been looking to the jobs report as this week's biggest potential source of volatility, but that changed on Thursday afternoon after Trump's $200bln MBS buying announcement. Treasuries have only been able to watch from the sidelines. At one point this morning after the jobs data, Treasuries were several bps weaker while MBS were in the midst of their biggest rally in months (up more than a half point at the time). There was a rapid "distribution" phase following the initial rally, but prices bounced back to end the day up about a quarter point. Higher coupons are getting no love as they are not assumed to be in fashion as the new buying commences. Details continue to matter, and we'll continue to wait for more of them, but based on volume and volatility, MBS traders are taking this very seriously.
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jan 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Participation Rate | Dec | 62.4% | 62.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Average earnings mm (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Dec | 50K | 60K | 64K |
| 8:30AM | Dec Unemployment rate mm (%) | Dec | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jan | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jan | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan U Mich conditions | Jan | 52.4 | 50.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jan | 54.0 | 53.5 | 52.9 |
| Monday, Jan 12 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
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