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Bond Market Only Marginally Interested in Powell Drama For Now
Bond Market Only Marginally Interested in Powell Drama For Now
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's building renovations. Bond yields were slightly higher this morning and commentators erroneously connected those dots. There was actually no meaningful movement in either direction when the news hit, but trading volume confirms the news was noticed. Weakness crept in gradually in the overnight session and about half of it has been erased in early trading. The net effect is a bond market that continues to operate in the same old range, albeit close to the weaker boundary.
Moderately weaker overnight but holding inside the range. 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.19. MBS down an eighth of a point.
No reaction to 3yr Treasury auction. 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.18 and MBS down just over an eighth of a point.
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jan 12 | |||||
| 11:30AM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| Tuesday, Jan 13 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 6:00AM | Dec NFIB Business Optimism Index | Dec | 99.5 | 99.0 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11.5K | |||
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 2.7% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 0.3% | ||
| 10:10AM | Jan IBD economic optimism | Jan | 48.2 | 47.9 | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.773% | |||
| 2:00PM | Dec Federal budget (bl) | Dec | $-173B | ||
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