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Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in sight. Some reporters pointed toward Fed Chair Powell's criminal inquiry as rattling the market, but bonds were effectively unchanged in the 1pm hour after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction. More importantly, there was no clear correlation between the overnight news and the overnight market movement. Volume was the lowest in several days--typical for a data-free Monday. MBS underperformed, but only because they're still range-finding after last week's massive outperformance. Tomorrow morning's trading deserves much more focus than anything seen today. CPI will be out at 8:30am ET and it is expected to be a more tradeable installment of the data compared to the last release (which proved to be questionable due to data collection constraints surrounding the shutdown/reopening timeline).
Stronger after CPI data. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.16
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 13 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 6:00AM | Dec NFIB Business Optimism Index | Dec | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.0 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11.75K | 11.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y CORE CPI (%) | Dec | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Dec m/m Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec y/y Headline CPI (%) | Dec | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jan IBD economic optimism | Jan | 47.2 | 48.2 | 47.9 |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.773% | |||
| 2:00PM | Dec Federal budget (bl) | Dec | $-150B | $-173B | |
| Wednesday, Jan 14 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 MBA Refi Index | Jan/09 | 937 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/09 | 159.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/09 | 270.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct PPI YoY | Oct | 2.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Oct | 0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Producer Prices (%) | Oct | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales (%) | Nov | 0.4% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Nov | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Business Inventories (% ) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Existing home sales (ml) | Dec | 4.2M | 4.13M | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Dec | 0.5% | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/09 | -3.831M | ||
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